Editor’s Note: This is a companion piece to Michael McNulty’s article published by Just Security.
The 2026 midterms will be a stress test for whether election outcomes are determined by the will of the voters or by who controls the machinery of elections. President Trump and his allies are pursuing a comprehensive effort to take control of elections and tilt the playing field in their favor.
This playbook is not unique to the United States. I spent more than two decades working on elections in countries where, as part of a well-known authoritarian playbook, leaders consolidated control over electoral systems and entrenched power. For example, in Hungary, over the past 15 years, Viktor Orbán’s government has weakened independent election oversight, stacked courts with loyalists, consolidated media under government-friendly ownership, and rewrote election rules to favor the ruling party. Together these steps produced a system where the playing field is heavily tilted and voters’ voices are increasingly constrained.
The warning from Hungary and dozens of other backsliding democracies is clear: election takeovers don’t happen overnight. They happen gradually through a series of coordinated moves that reshape the system before voters even cast a ballot.
That is the precise moment our country is facing now. President Trump has made his intentions unusually explicit. During the 2024 campaign he told supporters that “in four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good.” More recently he called on Republicans to “nationalize the voting.” He wants to take a system the Constitution deliberately left to the states and place it under centralized political control.
President Trump’s version of attempted election takeover has at times been a clumsy effort that trips over constitutional limits and is blocked by judicial and political resistance. But make no mistake: this is a determined, multi-step effort. That’s why 2026 will test whether voters — or those in power — decide outcomes. America’s system is resilient, but only if we recognize the pattern and act in time.
Trump’s Version of the Election Takeover Playbook
President Trump’s election takeover effort consists of five main steps:
Lay the groundwork by spreading false election narratives;
Install loyalists who act on those false narratives;
Rewrite the rules and weaponize the executive branch against the system;
Create an intimidating environment around voting; and
Attack the count and certification.
1. Prepare the ground with false election narratives
The first step is to convince the public the election system cannot be trusted.
This has been a core part of President Trump’s messaging for over a decade. He claimed fraud after the 2012 election, warned in 2016 that the system would be “rigged,” and, after winning, insisted millions of illegal votes were cast against him. In 2020, those claims escalated into sweeping allegations of a stolen election, forming the basis for the January 6 insurrection. His baseless claims failed from a legal perspective, as Trump and his allies lost all but one of more than 60 cases.
Now, in the past month, Trump has escalated his false election fraud narratives, including exaggerated and unsupported claims of widespread foreign interference by China and Iran, which could be used as a false pretext to declare a national security emergency and violate the Constitution by asserting executive control over elections.
The goal is not to win legal arguments. The purpose is to convince enough Americans that the system is broken to lay the groundwork for the next steps in the takeover plan.
2. Install election-denying loyalists inside institutions that influence elections
In 2020, one of the strongest safeguards was that public officials from both parties put the country and Constitution first. Election officials provided accurate results. Courts rejected unfounded claims. And on January 6, 2021, Vice President Mike Pence upheld his constitutional duty to certify the results.
President Trump learned his lesson. This time, instead of relying on impartial professionals, the administration has moved to place individuals who have publicly questioned or sought to overturn the 2020 results into key roles that directly influence election policy, voter data litigation, and federal election security coordination. This includes, among others, Kurt Olsen; Harmeet Dhillon; Christopher Gardner; Megan Frederick; David Harvilicz; and Heather Honey.
The system held in 2020 because officials honored their Constitutional oath. Now the strategy is to install people who will not only allow an attempt to subvert an election – but could help it succeed.
3. Rewrite the rules and weaponize the executive branch before voting begins
This is where we are now. As with other backsliding democracies, the most consequential phase of election manipulation often happens long before Election Day. The president and his allows are undertaking several lines of effort:
Aggressive gerrymandering. After direct calls from President Trump for GOP-driven mid-decade redistricting, gerrymandering has become an explicit strategy to lock in a structural House majority. Mid-decade gerrymandering has never before been pursued at this scale or under the direct direction of a sitting president. This has triggered a redistricting arms race in Democratic-controlled states and could intensify further depending on the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais.
Controlling who can vote and how to vote. President Trump has pushed false fraud claims to justify tighter control over who can vote and to restrict how people vote. As former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem put it, the administration is trying to make sure they “have the right people voting, electing the right leaders.” After the courts largely blocked Trump’s March 2025 executive order, he and his GOP allies are trying to ram these measures through Congress. Proposals like the SAVE America and MEGA Acts would impose strict documentation requirements to register and to vote, centralized voter screening based on erroneous federal databases, restrictions on mail-in voting, and new voter verification rules. While these federal bills have virtually no chance of being signed into law, similar policies are being advanced in some states, such as Florida.
Interfering with election officials. Lawsuits against Secretaries of State, seizures of voting equipment, federal investigations, and raids of election offices aim to intimidate courageous election administrators. President Trump seeks compliance the next time he calls a Secretary of State and demands that they “find the votes” to overturn the will of the people.
Shaping the information environment. Increased federal pressure on the media — including unusual FCC scrutiny of and intervention in broadcast content and helping MAGA allies acquire reputable national news outlets — shows a willingness to use government power to influence the narrative about candidates and elections. This kind of tactic, common in authoritarian contexts, raises concerns about political influence over election coverage and narratives.
Sidelining the opposition. Authoritarian leaders often use “lawfare” to weaken opponents. Trump has already directed the DOJ to investigate and prosecute political opponents. These tactics are likely to escalate in 2026 and expand to targeting candidates in competitive Senate, House, and statewide races. DOJ investigations and partisan enforcement of election or campaign laws could harass, disqualify, or financially drain candidates in competitive 2026 races before a single vote is cast.
Together these measures aim to control the electorate, voting methods, the referees, and the information environment before voting even begins.
4. Control the environment during voting
If earlier steps fail, the next step in the playbook is interference while voting is underway. Federal raids of election offices, National Guard deployments in blue cities, and calls from figures like Steve Bannon to have ICE agents “surround the polls” show a strategy to suppress turnout in targeted communities.
While these actions would almost certainly be ruled illegal and unconstitutional, the strategy doesn’t necessarily depend on winning in court in real time. It depends on disruption and intimidation. There is a risk that, by the time the courts step in, the damage to public confidence, willingness to turn out to vote, and pressure on local officials could already be done. Election officials across the country are actively preparing for these scenarios.
5. Attack the count and certification
If the first four steps fail, the final step is one we have already seen from the president in past cycles: declare victory early, call to stop the count, cast doubt on legitimate ballots, and file baseless lawsuits to delay the count. As The Atlantic’s David Graham has warned, election night could be pushed into crisis mode, with heavy security around counting centers and routine tabulation recast as suspicious.
Certification — the purely ceremonial step that makes results official — is another pressure point. In recent cycles some officials have tried to delay or refuse certification based on unfounded claims of irregularities. In 2026, an administration filled with election-denying loyalists could intensify pressure on state officials, governors, and even members of Congress to block or refuse to recognize legitimate results.
Why This Strategy Can Still Fail
Despite these threats, there are strong reasons for optimism. Heading into the 2026 elections, we have six key guardrails that protect our elections.
Constitutional authority for running elections is vested in the states, not the executive branch. The decentralized nature of our elections, run by states and thousands of local jurisdictions, make it far harder for any single actor to seize centralized control.
Election officials have shown remarkable resilience despite harassment and threats.
Courts have repeatedly required evidence for baseless fraud claims and upheld constitutional limits on executive power.
Some Republican leaders have stood up for the rule of law even under intense pressure.
Civil society is also increasingly active. Journalists, watchdog organizations, and community groups are prebunking misinformation, supporting election officials, and educating voters.
And perhaps most importantly, most Americans still support lawful election outcomes. Large bipartisan majorities say ballots should be counted fairly and reject political violence.
But these guardrails will not hold automatically. They must be actively defended.
What Civil Society Can Do
Civil society organizations play a crucial role in protecting elections.
First, we must “think like an authoritarian” – to see the big picture and to recognize that each action is linked to a coordinated, five-step plan to take over elections. Election subversion often unfolds through a series of actions that may seem isolated but are in fact connected. Seeing the full strategy helps prevent distraction and allows coordinated responses.
Second, act together. In countries where election subversion efforts have been blocked or reversed, broad coalitions across civic, business, faith, legal, and media sectors worked in sustained coordination. In Poland broad pro‑democracy groups helped stop a period of backsliding; in Ghana civil society coalitions have monitored elections, countered false narratives, and reinforced public trust in results; and in Senegal youth movements and civil society pressured leaders to hold elections on schedule. When civil society acts collectively to deter, monitor, and respond collectively in real time, attempts to undermine elections are far less likely to succeed.
Third, connect elections to everyday life. Free and fair elections determine the quality of public services, schools, economic stability, and personal freedom. When people see how their vote directly shapes their communities, they are more likely to recognize the stakes and defend democratic norms. For example, restrictions on mail-in ballots or limited polling locations can make it harder for working families and rural residents to participate — and that directly affects who controls local budgets and policy priorities. If we fail to make that connection, others are quick to fill the vacuum with fear and false fraud narratives.
Fourth, support election officials. Local administrators and poll workers are the backbone of the system. Concrete actions to support them include advocating for adequate state and federal funding for election infrastructure, publicly recognizing their service and professionalism, and defending them through legal support and election worker protection laws. Investing in the well‑being, safety, and independence of election administrators helps ensure they can carry out their duties without fear or intimidation.
What Citizens Can Do
Free and fair elections ultimately depend on individuals participating and taking action.
Participate directly. Register to vote and make a plan to vote. Serve as poll workers, election judges, or observers. The more Americans witness the professionalism, transparency, and neutrality of election operations, the more trust spreads in the system.
Hold your elected officials to the rules of the game. Tell your representatives at the local, state, and federal level, as well as your preferred candidates, to commit to upholding and protecting impartial rules before the election, and to respect the outcome afterward. You can help deter efforts to subvert elections by showing – in advance – your elected leaders there are costs to election manipulation and rewards for defending the process.
Be a trusted voice in your community. People are more likely to believe accurate information from friends, family, and neighbors than from distant authorities or partisan media. Debunk false election narratives in your circles. Encourage others to register, understand their rights, and help them make a plan for voting.
Monitor and report threats. Become a pollwatcher or nonpartisan election observer. Document harassment, false election narratives, or attempts to intimidate officials, and share credible information from nonpartisan watchdogs.
Show appreciation for election officials. Attend local board meetings, volunteer, or simply write letters to thank your local election officials for their heroic service. Public support strengthens morale and signals that their work is valued.
Holding the Line
America’s election system is strong, but its strength depends on people. Judges must uphold the law. Election officials must remain impartial. Citizens must participate. And leaders must put the Constitution above party.
The question is not whether elections will be tested – that battle is already underway. The question is whether we will hold the line.
Donald Trump will do anything to make sure that the Democrats don't get in office, but I don't think that he can do anything to sway people to vote for Republicans!!