False Narratives About Noncitizen Voting in the Election Spreading on Social Media

Voting in the 2024 election has already begun in Virginia, Minnesota, and South Dakota, and dozens more will soon follow. As election season gears up, it’s crucial to examine the information ecosystem in which voters will be casting their ballot. 

Already this election cycle, we’ve seen false narratives spread online about the first assassination attempt on former President Trump, about Democrats rigging military and overseas voting, and about the supposed vulnerability of ballot drop boxes.

Now, a new survey from Issue One conducted by GQR and Redbud Consulting (N=1,500; fielded September 3-9, 2024) shows social media platforms have helped boost false narratives around the election, further eroding confidence in our democratic processes. Even more troubling, one myth in particular — the myth of noncitizen voting — has been pushed to vulnerable populations.

According to Issue One’s new survey, 67% of respondents reported encountering content on social media about noncitizens illegally voting in elections. But there are significant variations across political affiliations, race, and gender. 77% of Republicans reported seeing these posts, compared with just 63% of Democrats and 49% of independents. Further, 27% of Republicans reported seeing these posts more frequently, a significant increase over Democrats (16%) and independents (8%). 

Hispanic men (63%) are more likely to report seeing such posts than other demographics, including white men (56%), white women (38%), Black men (51%), Black women (35%), and Hispanic women (44%).

False claims of noncitizen voting aren’t new. Remember that Donald Trump made these claims in 2016 but his own “investigation” of that spurious allegation turned up zero evidence. In 2019, Texas officials improperly accused thousands of noncitizens of violating the law by registering to vote. This cycle, former President Trump has repeated these false claims over and over, including during the recent presidential debate with Vice President Harris. This narrative has also been boosted by fake news sites that the FBI has linked to the Kremlin.

The reality is that the federal government and many states have strict laws, which have been in place for over 25 years, that only citizens may vote. And every state also has checks and balances to ensure only eligible citizens vote. For example, when someone registers to vote, their state checks federal and state databases to ensure that only U.S. citizens are registered. 

Numerous studies have shown that violations of these laws occur at near-zero rates. The CATO Institute says the percentage of noncitizens voting is closer to zero than 1%. A database maintained by the conservative Heritage Foundation indicates that only 85 cases exist involving allegations of noncitizens voting from 2002 to 2023.

Results from Issue One’s new survey show, in part, how stories raising the specter of noncitizen voting are able to perpetuate, even with zero evidence. Of course, these claims have long reverberated across social media, and some part of this amplification is the result of organic interest or belief in the issue. But that’s not the whole story. 

Social media companies are, in essence, advertising platforms. They are free to use, but they make money by monetizing your attention and selling space on their platforms to anyone who will buy it (including militia organizations and Russian propaganda networks). The longer users stay on social platforms, the more money these companies make. Therefore, these companies have a strong incentive to direct to users the content that will keep them coming back — the most inflammatory, provocative, and often false content. Posts with false information or fake stories about individuals who aren’t eligible to vote fit that formula to a tee. 

Issue One’s findings indicate the social media platforms are directing stories about noncitizen voting to the populations already primed to believe or be angered by those stories. And political ideology isn’t the only tool that platforms employ to target users. 75% of Hispanic non-college respondents report seeing posts on social media about noncitizens voting illegally in elections, compared to 62% of white non-college respondents. The poll results also show that men are more likely to have their feeds show this kind of content, with 76% of men reporting that they see posts about noncitizen voting, compared to 58% of women. These findings are consistent with studies showing how algorithmically ranked feeds shape conservative and liberal bubbles. 

These findings are a reminder of why we need guardrails and accountability for tech companies who profit off of false information. In the absence of meaningful oversight of these platforms, those of us who have the time and resources, must commit to seeking out and sharing credible sources of information. In the case of elections, the trained election officials on the ground are best equipped to explain the checks and balances in place to keep elections safe and secure. To learn more about the officials administering your elections, go to HowElectionsWork.org. 

See more results from Issue One’s poll of Americans’ attitudes ahead of the 2024 election.